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厦门雅思培训作者:朗阁海外考试中心时间:2015-06-01 10:56

摘要:雅思口语考试中有一些经常会遇到的话题,平时复习时掌握一些相关的话题素材很有必要哦。为了帮助大家在雅思口语考试中斩获高分,朗阁雅思网特为大家准备了雅思考试口语话题素材:经济增长,正在雅思备考的你可千万别错过哟~ Where does growth come from? Why do some
  Where does growth come from? Why do some countries emerge and take on developed status while others flounder before reaching that stage?
  Some once unlikely candidates have emerged as powerful economies. South Korea grew in two generations from a peasant economy devastated by war to a fully paid-up member of the developed world. Others far better placed have stumbled.
  This is not simply a question of natural resources or of educational systems. Research led by Ricardo Hausmann at Harvard suggests growth is “driven by knowledge – at the level of society, not the individual”.
  The first question asks what a society knows how to do. The follow-up is whether this knowhow can be applied in new areas. If people are already skilled in one area, are there other industries in which their skills can easily be applied?
  The research involved producing the so-called Atlas of Economic Complexity (a simplified version can be viewed at www.ft.com/authersnote), examining how knowhow forms clusters among industries. Big groups form around garments – where many successful emerging markets started their ascent – construction, machinery, chemicals and electronics. All need skills readily transferable to other sectors.
  Outlying clusters involve natural resources. Countries blessed with oil or mineral wealth can do well for a while. But extractive industries do not involve expertise that can easily be transferred to other things. Unless countries deliberately build new areas of expertise with the cash they generate from their minerals, they will regress when the money runs out. So Mr Hausmann endorses the notion of an oil curse . Leaders in countries that can get all the wealth they need from the ground under their feet tend to grow complacent and avoid necessary reforms.
  This might explain why South Korea, with little mineral wealth, grew so fast, while Mexico, endowed with what in the 1970s appeared to be among the world’s biggest oil supplies, lapsed into stagnation.
  The next stage is to spot the nations best positioned to improve. The winners run counter to market wisdom.
  Mexico, an underperformer of the last generation, shows up as the Latin American economy best positioned for growth. Brazil, recently an investor darling, shows up poorly. Why?
  Mexico is better positioned, according to Mr Hausmann, because it has diversified, into aircraft, information technology and so on. After the financial crises of the 1980s and 1990s showed that it could not live on oil alone, Mexico invested in manufacturing and assembly companies on its border with the US.
  This was a crude play on cheap labour, piecing together imported parts and sending them back across the border. But these industries are well connected. With these skills, it becomes easier for Mexico to diversify into other industries, from car manufacturing to electronics, and to take on more stages of the production process.
  Brazil has concentrated on its resources sector, led by soybeans and mining.
  “Brazil has grown remarkably little in the context of very high commodity prices,” Mr Hausmann says. “If they stay where they are or decline, their ability to grow will depend on their ability to diversify into more complex products. Brazil isn’t well positioned to do that.”
  Predictions around the rest of the world are also counterintuitive. In sub-Saharan Africa, the country best positioned for growth is Zimbabwe.
  “If you assume that biology is going to take care of their main obstacle, which is Mr Mugabe, the country has knowhow in its society that could be expressed into higher levels of income.”
  Tunisia and Egypt, despite the turmoil after the Arab Spring, show up as promising growth spots. Qatar, potentially a classic victim of the oil curse, does not.
  “Oil is unlikely to be an additional source of growth, so the rest of the economy doesn’t have much to help it.”
  On China, the good news is that Mr Hausmann’s group think it is well-positioned to grow. The bad news is that their prediction, of 4.5 to 5 per cent growth per year for the rest of this decade, is in line with a recession at some stage. As conventional wisdom has pencilled in China for growth of at least 7.5 per cent, bailing out the rest of the world in the process, this is not good news. For many, Chinese growth below 5 per cent would be a hard landing.
  But Mr Hausmann’s target sounds fair.
  “They have to go from a 46 per cent investment rate to something more reasonable. It’s hard to do that without a period of very slow or negative growth.”
  You have been warned. To mitigate the effects of a slowing China, perhaps it is best to look on Mr Hausmann’s map for the countries that are counter-intuitively best placed to grow regardless.
  这不仅仅是一个自然资源或教育体制的问题。哈佛大学(Harvard)里卡多?豪斯曼(Ricardo Hausmann)主持的研究项目显示,增长“受到知识的驱动,这种知识体现全社会层面,而非个人层面”。
  这项研究包括,通过考察专有技术如何形成产业集群,绘制出经济复杂程度地图册(Atlas of Economic Complexity)(其简版可在www.ft.com/authersnote观看)。大型围绕服装(很多成功新兴市场就是从这里起步的)、建设、机械、化学制品和电子产品建立起来。这些都需要能够轻易转移到其他行业的技能。
  偏远的产业集群包括自然资源。石油或矿产资源丰富的国家可能会取得一时的成功。但采掘行业不需要能够轻易被转移至其他行业的专业技能。除非这些国家有意利用矿产收入打造新的专业领域,否则当资金耗尽时,它们将后悔莫及。因此豪斯曼支持石油诅咒(oil curse)的说法。那些国家能够从脚下的土地中获得所需所有财富,那些国家的人往往会变得自满起来,并且不会主动实行必要的改革。
  至于中国,好消息是,豪斯曼的研究团队认为是该国具备良好的增长条件。坏消息是,据他们预测,在这个10年剩下的时间里中国将每年增长4.5 %至5%,并将在某个阶段出现衰退。这就并非好消息了,因为传统看法认为中国经济至少会增长7.5%,并在此过程中拯救全球其他国家。对于很多人而言,中国经济增速低于5%将意味着硬着陆。

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